{"id":413,"date":"2025-07-20T12:21:26","date_gmt":"2025-07-20T12:21:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/docjulien.me\/?p=413"},"modified":"2025-07-20T12:43:50","modified_gmt":"2025-07-20T12:43:50","slug":"the-myth-of-chinas-never-ending-boom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/docjulien.me\/fr\/the-myth-of-chinas-never-ending-boom\/","title":{"rendered":"Le mythe du boom sans fin de la Chine"},"content":{"rendered":"

China\u2019s rise has often been depicted as an unstoppable economic juggernaut. Yet much of that narrative relies on a carefully managed appearance\u2014propaganda, selective statistics, and policy-driven growth that paper over structural decay. Behind the fa\u00e7ade, demographic collapse, EV industry failure, and a real estate bubble reveal a far less resilient economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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1. One\u2011Child Policy: Boosting Productivity by Limiting Dependents<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The one\u2011child policy (1979\u20132015) dramatically reduced fertility and dependency ratios, allowing more women to work. A respected macroeconomic study shows this policy promoted human capital investment and raised per capita output versus a no\u2011policy scenario (Journal of Development Economics, vol.\u202f101, 2013). The authors concluded that limiting family size improved savings, education spending, and productivity.
(Reference: \u201cThe one\u2011child policy: A macroeconomic analysis,\u201d ScienceDirect) ScienceDirect<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Likewise, a 2025 University of Michigan study found that as childcare demands dropped and time freed up, female entrepreneurship increased by nearly 40%, boosting household income and overall productivity. (Journalistic summary: Michigan Ross, March 4 2025) Michigan Ross<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

These gains, however, came with long-term demographic costs. China now faces population decline amid ultra-low fertility, leading to an aging workforce that undermines future productivity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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2. Appearance vs Reality: Government Incentives Maintain the Illusion<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Much of China’s growth narrative stems from centrally directed policy: massive subsidies, infrastructure projects, favorable bank loans, and regional licensing. Local governments compete to host industries by underwriting startups, bidding for land deals, and inflating growth metrics. This mirrors how government agencies can \u201cmassage\u201d unemployment or GDP figures for reassurance rather than reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In infrastructure, built roads, bridges, and airports often yield limited economic return. A major academic study (Ansar et al., 2016) concluded that China\u2019s infrastructure investments frequently produce negative risk\u2011adjusted returns and contribute to financial fragility rather than durable growth. arXiv<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"vcg111100491552
Propaganda posts on western social media claim homelessness in China has been eliminated. some even claim every chinese person owns a house – although ownership of land is exclusive to the state.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

3. EV Boom Turned Bust: The Subsidy-Fueled Shakeout<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Between 2018 and 2025, over 400 Chinese EV startups failed<\/strong>. Of roughly 500 brands at peak, fewer than 100 remain. Analysts forecast fewer than 50 surviving by 2030. Government subsidies initially fueled explosive entry but then evaporated; price wars followed, eliminating underfunded firms. EVBoosters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notable failures include WM Motor (bankrupt in 2023 despite billions raised), Byton (liquidated in 2021 before scaling production), Singulato (filed for bankruptcy in 2023 with \u00a517\u202fbillion in funding), and Qiantu Motor (went under in early 2025). Yicai Global<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consultancy AlixPartners predicts only 15 of the current 129 Chinese EV brands will survive to 2030. These few will control 75% of the market; most others will have vanished. Reuters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even publicly listed companies such as Nio, Xpeng, and Zeekr report substantial losses\u2014despite record sales. BYD is one of the rare profitable firms. Business Insider<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
EV graveyards started popping up in 2023 from rebate scams and EV companies going belly up<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

4. Real Estate: A Systemic Bubble Beyond 2008<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s property sector was long celebrated as the driver of middle-class wealth and GDP growth. But real estate, construction, and related finance once accounted for nearly 30% of GDP. When Evergrande collapsed\u2014with over $300\u202fbillion in liabilities\u2014dozens of other developers followed suit. Homes sold to speculators remain unfinished across the country. Wikip\u00e9dia<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Local governments relied heavily on land resale for revenue. These built enormous \u2014 often unneeded \u2014 infrastructure, eroding productivity while inflating debt. \u2800
(Reference: Ansar et al. on infrastructure inefficiency) arXiv<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

5. COVID: A Facade Breaks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s strict, centralized COVID lockdowns disrupted growth longer than in the West, yet government data continued to project resilience. Meanwhile, population decline accelerated: births in 2023 fell to 9\u202fmillion\u2014the lowest in decades. The fertility rate remains below 1.1, threatening long-term workforce viability. By some estimates, over 30% of the population will be age 65+ by 2050. WIRED<\/a> wsj.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

6. False Success: The Danger of Surface-Level Growth<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Like figures cooked by financial regulators to show stability, many Chinese economic figures obscure deeper rot: ghost cities, insolvent developers, industrial overcapacity, and stagnant domestic consumption. The central government emphasizes headline GDP numbers, but under the surface sits debt, demographic decline, and shrinking demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s growth has been maintained on a fa\u00e7ade: income appears robust, startups abound, infrastructure glistens\u2014but cracks are widening. The one\u2011child policy once lifted productivity by enabling female labor and reducing dependents\u2014but it also triggered long-term demographic collapse. Massive subsidies and centralized direction created EV bubbles, unsustainable infrastructure, and inflated real estate wealth\u2014all now imploding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rather than assuming China\u2019s dominance is inevitable, it\u2019s time to look beneath the surface. Its growth narrative is increasingly a tale of appearances\u2014arcane control masked by data. In contrast, the West\u2019s relative transparency, innovation culture, and systemic adaptability may be better poised for long-term resilience.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

China\u2019s rise has often been depicted as an unstoppable economic juggernaut. 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